Dated: May 19, 2015

Time: 1100 PST   

Preliminary Monsoon 2015 Outlook for Pakistan

Using local, regional and global data sets up to April, a Preliminary Monsoon 2015 Outlook for Pakistan is prepared for June-July-August. Its salient features are given below:

1.     Pre-Monsoon showers are expected during second fortnight of June and monsoon will attain its normal rhythm gradually toward the end of July.

2.     In general, 2015 monsoon is expected weaker than normal, therefore less than normal rain is foreseen during June-August.

3.     Monsoon rains will mainly concentrate in AJK, Northeast Punjab and upper KP embedded with extreme precipitation events sometimes exceeding 200mm per day.

4.     Models are indicating some heavy falls in catchment of Kabul River in Pakistan and Afghanistan due to interaction of westerlies and monsoon currents.

5.     Due to less cloudiness and relatively clearer skies in GB, glacier melt rate will be higher. A careful operation of dams will be required to avoid the synchronous peak flows.

6.     In Sindh and Balochistan, rainfall during the period is expected to remain much less than normal which may aggravate the drought conditions in Thar and Cholistan.

Pakistan Summer Monsoon (July-September) will be issued in June using data sets up to May.

2 May, 2014

Preliminary Outlook for Monsoon 2014

Pakistan Summer Monsoon Season spans over July to September. As a routine practice, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issues the Monsoon Outlook around mid June incorporating the dynamics of local, regional and global meteorological parameters up to the end of May each year. However, South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) designated by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has already issued Consensus Statement. Outlook made by this forum and preliminary outlook of PMD are presented below:

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5)

The outlook suggests that below normal to normal rainfall is most likely over South Asia as a whole. Below normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of western, Central and Southern parts of the South Asia and some areas in the northeastern-most parts of the region. Normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of northwestern and eastern parts and some island areas in the southern most part of the region. It is noteworthy that no part of the South Asia is likely to receive above normal rainfall.

Preliminary Monsoon Outlook by PMD

The emerging climatic features linked to El-Nino development have fairly large potential to suppress Pakistan Summer Monsoon 2014. According to the preliminary estimates of PMD, the amount of rainfall from July to September may be moderately below normal in Sindh, Balochistan and Southern Punjab while nearly normal rainfall is expected in North Punjab, KP, GB and Kashmir.

Note: Monthly outlook of Monsoon Season 2014 will be issued around mid June.

(ARIF MAHMOOD)  

Director General, PMD

10 January, 2013

Slightly Above Normal Rain Predicted for Winter 2013

On the basis of prevailing atmospheric circulation and Global weather conditions, prior to winter period, an attempt is made to predict the probable amount of rainfall, which is likely to occur in Pakistan during the winter period (January to March, 2013). Such prediction aims to satisfy the statistical test for 80% success (i.e. to be correct four times out of five in the average). On consideration of Global available data, there are 80% chances that the winter rainfall from January to March 2013, on all Pakistan bases will be slightly above normal (10- 15%).The normal rainfall (area-weighted) for the period January – March for Pakistan is 70.5 mm.

(Naeem Shah)

Director, CDPC, PMD, Karachi

Dated: 13 June, 2012

 Pakistan Summer Monsoon Outlook 2012

 1.    Summer monsoon season in Pakistan starts normally in July and persists until the end of September. PMD issues Pakistan’s monsoon outlook every year before the onset of the monsoon season which gives an idea of country-wide total amount of precipitation expected throughout the season. Main objective of this outlook is the management of available water resources.

2.    Last winter and spring were cooler and wetter than normal; consequently yielding heavier snow accumulation over the northern mountains. Snow melt rate is lower than normal due to generally below normal temperatures in Northern Areas and frequent passage of westerlies in May and June. It is envisaged that the snowmelt contribution to riverine flooding will be minimal.

3.    El~Nino is likely to develop in August which has negative impact on Pakistan summer monsoon, in general. Likewise heavier than normal winter snow is a signal of weaker monsoon. Nevertheless, the western disturbance will continue affecting northern half of Pakistan and its interactions with monsoon current may produce heavy downpours in parts of the country at times.

4.    It is noteworthy to mention that the seasonal predictions of the South Asian monsoon 2012 made by different Regional Climate Outlook Fora are contradictory giving slightly above normal to below normal rainfall over the region.

5.    Monsoon Outlook

 Based on analysis of local, regional and global general circulation of atmosphere and incorporating the previous winter and spring behavior, the outlook for forthcoming monsoon season 2012 is as under:

“There is a strong likelihood that total amount of precipitation in Pakistan during monsoon season 2012 (July-September) will be +05-15% of the long term average. However, erratic spread of monsoon on temporal and spatial scale is likely to be a prevalent feature; as such the possibility of very heavy localized rainfall, at times resulting in flash flooding, may not be ruled out. Further, such localized rainfall events may cause localized flash flooding over the hill torrents of the Suleman Range and Rod-Kohi in Rajanpur, D. I. Khan and D. G. Khan.”

 Note:  An update will be issued depending upon any shift in global weather parameters. Normal monsoon rainfall (July-September) for Pakistan is 137.5 mm.

(ARIF MAHMOOD)

Director General, PMD

Dated: 6^th January, 2012

 Below Normal Rain Predicted for Winter 2012

Using statistical model and downscaling output of Global Circulation Model, the most probable seasonal precipitation has been predicted. All the land-sea-atmosphere indicators around the globe contributing to the South Asian Winter precipitation were incorporated.

Seasonal Outlook:

Total amount of precipitation during the winter season (January-March) is expected to remain 10-20% below normal.

Monthly Outlook

            January:

According to model predictions, precipitation in January is likely to remain below normal by about 25-30%. Mainly dry weather will continue over low elevation plains and 2-3 moderate spells of snowfall are predicted over the mountains.

            February:

A few good rains are expected in the second half of February which would neutralize the first drier half. In this way February is expected to receive normal amount of precipitation.

            March:

Due to increased convection, localized precipitation events will occur producing about 15-20% above normal precipitation during March.

            Seasonal Outlook is prepared at 80% confidence level.

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(ARIF MAHMOOD)

Director General, PMD

Date: January 12^th , 2011

Outlook: Winter 2011

“La Niña phenomenon, causing abnormally low precipitation with low temperatures in Pakistan so far, is still prevailing and expected to continue well into the Northern Hemisphere during winter/spring 2011, as predicted by most of the global models.”

On the basis of prevailing atmospheric circulation and Global weather conditions, prior to winter period, an attempt is made to predict the probable amount of rainfall, which is likely to occur in Pakistan during the winter period (January to March, 2011). Such prediction aims to satisfy the statistical test for 80% success (i.e. to be correct four times out of five in the average).

On consideration of Global available data, there are 80% chances that the winter rainfall from January to March 2011, on all Pakistan bases will be below normal (-20%). The expected monthly precipitation outlook is;

-                     January expected to receive largely below normal precipitation.

-                     February may receive slightly below normal precipitation.

-                     March may receive nearly normal precipitation.

The normal rainfall (area-weighted) for the period January – March for Pakistan is 70.5 mm.

(NAEEM SHAH)

Director, CDPC

Dated December 1^st, 2010

 WINTER RAINFALL IN PAKISTAN DURING THE PERIOD DECEMBER TO FEBRUARY 2010-11

 NORMAL WINTER RAINS PREDICTED

             On the basis of prevailing atmospheric circulation and Global weather conditions, prior to winter period, an attempt is made to predict the probable amount of rainfall, which is likely to occur in Pakistan during the winter period (December to February 2010-11). Such prediction aims to satisfy the statistical test for 80 % success (i.e. to be correct four times out of five in the average).

            On consideration of Global available data, there is 80% chance that winter rainfall from December to February 2010-11, on all Pakistan basis will be nearly normal. However, the northern parts of Pakistan may receive slightly above normal  (+ 10 %) precipitation due to one or two strong wet-spells during the month of January / February 2011.

            The normal rainfall (area weighted) for the period December to February for Pakistan is 51.99 mm.

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(NAEEM SHAH)

Director