PMD has predicted 2-3 rains at isolated areas of Chitral/ Gilgit-Baltistan during coming days. Due to combination of expected rain with snowmelt by persistent high temperatures, there is:

• High probability of GLOF/ Flash flooding in potentially vulnerable areas of Chitral.
• Moderate probability of GLOF/ Flash flooding in potentially vulnerable areas of Gilgit-Baltistan

Local communities are advised to remain alert and concerned authorities to take precautionary measures during the forecast period.

Distribution:

1. Chairman, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
2. Director General, Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority (GBDMA).
3. Director General, Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), Peshawar.
4. Deputy Commissioner Gilgit.
5. Deputy Commissioner Chitral.
6. Program Director, Rescue 1122, Gilgit.
7. Director General, 1122, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
8. National Project Manager, Pakistan GLOF-II Project, Islamabad.
9. Provincial Project Manager, Pakistan GLOF-II Project Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
10. Provincial Project Manager, Pakistan GLOF-II Project Gilgit-Baltistan.
11. Director, Regional Meteorological Centre, Peshawar.
12. Director, Regional Meteorological Centre, Gilgit.
13. Officer Incharge, Meteorological office, Chitral.
14. Officer Incharge, Meteorological office, Skardu.

Due to persistent high temperatures in combination of brief rain, there is a moderate probability of GLOF and flash flood in potential areas of GLOF in Chitral valley. Local communities are advised to remain alert and concerned authorities to take precautionary measures.

Distribution:

1. Chairman, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Islamabad.
2. PDMA, Peshawar.
3. Deputy Commissioner, Chitral.
4. Director, Regional Meteorological Center, Peshawar.
5. PMD Office, Chitral.

A GLOF event was reported in Roghali, Golain valley, Chitral in the afternoon of 07th July 2019. The englacial lake started to develop in the third June 2019 in the glacier of Nullah just before the jungle in Rogali valley at an elevation of 4500 meters above sea level.

 The event was triggered due to the lake which was formed two weeks ago shown in the satellite image (Figure-1). Initially the lake seems to be englacial lake which was not clearly visible (Figure-1). The size of the lake increases abruptly, covering an area of about 0.043 square kilometer, as per satellite image acquired on 3rd July 2019 (Figure-2). This lake ultimately results in an outburst that created a GLOF event yesterday evening, 7th July 2019, damaging road from multiple locations. The drainage from the lake and glacier is expected to remain erratic in coming few days. Moreover the debris flow and pieces of glaciated ice are likely to accompany the drainage water which may exaggerate the damage along the river flood path.

 The temperatures in Chitral valley are persistently high and will remain high in coming week. These high temperatures may enhance melt rate of glaciers triggering the probability of high flows in the rivers. Therefore, the communities in glaciated regions are advised to remain highly alert due to uneven flow in the valleys and stay away from the river paths..

Distribution:

1. Chairman, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Islamabad.
2. Deputy Commissioner, Chitral.
3. Director, Regional Meteorological Center, Peshawar.
4. PMD Office, Chitral.

A GLOF event was reported in Roghali, Golain valley, Chitral in the afternoon of 07-07-2019. As per initial reports, there was no lake on the location of flood origin. However, a small glacier of approximate 0.6 square kilometers area was present at an elevation of 4400 m. The possibility of englacial lake burst cannot be ruled out in this event.

 The event may be triggered due to persistent high temperatures from last week. The maximum temperature raised to 39°C (02 degree higher than the normal temperature) in Chitral Valley. Damages to few houses, two bridges and erosion along the flood path has been reported due to flood event. The persistent high temperatures are expected to continue during the next week causing above normal discharge thereof in the adjacent river. The communities are advised to remain conscious of uneven flow in the valleys and stay alert on the flood.

 The Shishper glacial dammed lake has been drained in a controlled way between night of 22nd and 23rd June 2019 generating discharge flow of 5000 cusecs. Minor damage to KKH was reported due to erosion of land below the road adjacent to Hassan Abad RCC bridge. AKAH also confirmed that 90% of the Shishper lake has been drained out.

 TA joint mission of PMD, UNDP, GBDMA and FOCUS was regularly monitoring the situation on site. The mission has already been reported to local administration in meeting held on Friday afternoon.

 PMD team is in field since last Sunday, working on the feasibility of installation of early warning system. Due to critical situation, as a first step towards fully automated early warning system, PMD immediately installed Automatic Weather Station (AWS) and rain gauge at the site. PMD team was in close coordination with GBDMA, local district administration, FWO and relevant stakeholders during the activity.

 It is further informed that Shishper glacier is still in the surging phase. Melting of both the glaciers are happening due to higher temperature. Hence, there is a probability of lake reformation. It is therefore suggested that Shishper glacier may be continuously monitored to avoid any disastrous situation.